Virtually all championship caliber boxers below heavyweight move up at least one weight class before their careers end. Usually it's because they can no longer make weight as they grow older and increase muscle mass.
A boxers workout, even one without weight training will, over time, build muscle mass. Coupled with the natural tendency to gain mass as one matures (remember, fighters are often still in their late teens/early twenties when they turn professional), this constant exercise means several weight classes will pass before the clock winds down on the average boxing career.
For Manny Pacquiao, all this, and more, has come to pass. When Pacquiao's professional career began back in 1995, he was a snot-nosed 16-year-old who weighed in at 107 pounds. That was thirteen years and 28 pounds ago. At 29-years-old and 135 pounds, he should be at his competitive peak, which is good, since his toughest opposition to date may be right around the corner.
The three names that come immediately to mind are: Juan Diaz, Joel Casamayor, and Nate Campbell.
Juan Diaz
Juan "The Baby Bull" Diaz mowed down the lightweight division on his way to becoming the closest thing to "undisputed champion" the division has had since Pernell Whitaker ruled the lightweights in the '90s. Were it not for Joel Casamayor's tenacious milking of the WBC title, it might have been within Diaz's reach too.
HBO was grooming The Baby Bull to be it's next cash cow with the looming departure of Oscar De La Hoya from the competitive side of the sport, and Diaz's "brawl for it all" style seemed perfect for putting butts in seats. An unexpected loss (unexpected to the Diaz camp, anyway), to 36-year-old Nate Campbell changed things considerably. But Diaz is still a force, and a peculiar challenge for Pacquiao.
Diaz is a volume puncher in it's purest definition. With his typical 100 punch-per-round output, his defense is his overwhelming offense, with excellent stamina that belies his pudgy appearance. The downside of that style is that to throw so many punches he has to be fairly stationary. Once matched up with a man of equal or greater toughness and an intuitive sense of finding openings, Diaz looked very ordinary and his lack of punching power became an obvious problem instead of just a potential one..
Against Pacquiao, Diaz would rediscover all the issues he had with Campbell, but with Pacquiao's even greater speed. It's Pacquiao vs. David Diaz all over again. Pacquiao's much improved footwork, thanks to his trainer, Freddie Roach, coupled with his hand speed and power would positively ruin Diaz.
Joel Casamayor
This long reigning champion and Cuban defector with the golden amateur background has boxing skills that Manny Pacquiao could never hope to attain via Roach's on the job training process. Unfortunately for Casamayor, age, spotty training discipline, and a less than granite chin leave him vulnerable to Pacquiao's speed and power.
In Casamayor's recent fights with Armando Santa Cruz and Michael Katsidis, respectively, Casamayor has shown, in varying degrees: disinterest and laziness (against Santa Cruz) a weak chin, gutsiness, resourceful counter punching, and KO power (versus Katsidis).
Pacquiao vs. Casamayor presents an interesting tactical matchup that probably ends with the younger, faster, stronger Pacquiao catching up to Casamayor in the late rounds and knocking him out.
Casamayor is set to face Juan Manuel Marquez on Sept 13 with the winner likely to face the winner of Juan Guzman and...
Nate Campbell
Nate Campbell and Juan Guzman also fight on Sept 13. Should Campbell work his way through Guzman and Casamayor, Pacquiao would likely be next for the 36-year-old Florida pug.
Of the fighters presented, Campbell offers the greatest challenge to Pacquiao. Campbell started his boxing career late at 26, and has five losses to prove it, but his lack of textbook technique is probably a plus since he has excellent fighting intuition and is willing to take the shots presented to him rather than worry about whether or not his punches have perfect form--a tendency that slows many fighters down and prevents them from reacting to opportunities to land.
Campbell's power served him well against Diaz, as did a tenaciousness seldom seen in a fighter of his advancing years. Pacquiao is becoming more and more the classic boxer and classic boxers despise unorthodox fighters. Many punches would be landed from both men.
It is this fight that the writer looks most forward to, and it's a fight that could well become an instant classic.
